On Strategy: When In Depth Analysis Leads to Better Strategy
By Jack Mixner
Mansfield attacks two problems, taking the "rough estimation" and "panic and rapid adoption" of new strategies in situations of a "rapid emergence" of a new technology.
Recognizing that strategy is more that just a flip chart and three days with your team, he lays out a four-step process: Scope and data generation, Scenario development, Dynamic simulation and Testing and planning.
This is more than a flipchart. Mansfield's team starts with analysis - lots of it. The simulation is the fun part, somewhat like the the what-if analysis we're all used to, but with a whole lot more information.
Strategic Implications
In times of rapid change in an important - and probably global - marketplace simple strategy is only the first step. A useful adjunct is wargaming using scenarios based upon rigorous analysis.
When there are large stakes, these are significant tools to wheel into action.
The trick is to take your time and realize when your situation won't allow panic - when you need "no-nonsense" tools.
Reference
Mansfield, Mark. Optimizing Strategic Decisions and Risk Management Through the S3 (TM) Framework. http://www.dpaction.com/docs/S3Methodology%20White%20Paper.pdf . 2005.