1800 Was the Tipping Point
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Before 1800, the human population relied the "contemporaneous energy of the sun, mainly in the forms of food, fuel wood, fibers, and a modest capture of wind and water power (Sachs, 64). The energy sources were limiting on population growth.
After 1800, the limits were "surmounted by coal, oil, and natural gas (Sachs, 64)." Population began to explode.
Since I like to watch technology companies grow, I was heartened to realize, thanks to Sachs, that one invention, particularly, allowed the human population to soar. In fact, it wasn't just any old invention.
The Haber-Bosch process for synthesizing nitrogen-based chemical fertilizers allowed for 80 percent of the growth of cereal production in the twentieth century (Sachs, 65-66). That one chemical reaction was basically responsible for much of the green revolution, or certainly the "food" revolution, across the world.
One invention. Huge growth.
Of course, there is another story that goes along with this wonderful one, that of the growth of global warming from the burning of fossil fuels and the expansion of arable land by burning existing forests and grasslands. Sachs summarizes the effects of the global warming that has paralleled the growth in technology based agriculture and manufacturing. The expected results are just a scary as we have been led to believe by the media, perhaps worse.
Since about 1800 or so technology has allowed the expansion of the global economy and population. The results of that expansion will "come home to roost" over the next century. My optimistic nature believes that there will be technological mitigations for the forecasted problems, but they remain to be seen. Sachs says mitigating these areas may be enough (Sachs, 97):
- deforestation,
- emissions from electricity production and automobiles,
- clean up steel, cement, refineries and petrochemical production,
- economize electricity and
- replace furnaces with grid power.
That list looks more doable that the hand-wringing we are seeing in the press.
Reference
Sachs, Jeffrey D. Common Wealth. Economics for a Crowded Planet. The Penguin Press. New York. 2008.